Tyche “Statto” Shepherd’s weekly grid report has revealed that the Second Life grid grew this week for the first time since March 31st 2013. Tyche reports:
The grid actually grew this week by 14 regions , Private Estates had net growth of 15 while Linden Owned dropped by 1
Total number of Main Grid regions is now 26145 ( 19163 private estates & 6982 Linden owned)
60 new regions were added and 17 returned to the grid, with 63 regions removed (20 were renamed and 0 came and went since last report)A modest growth this week , the first time the Grid has grown week on week since 31st March 2013 . The growth was distributed across a range of estates – no particular estate exhibiting a significant change in size due to new regions.
However before anyone starts poppnig champagne corks and heralding the dawn of a new age I should add a word of warning. The grid grew by 13 regions back on March 31st 2013 and that in itself was the first week on week growth since June 24th 2012, when the grid grew by 30 regions.
However there are definite positive signs. The loss of regions has undoubtedly slowed down. Let’s take a look at some tables! A point to note here, my calculations could be wrong, I may have made a glaring typo but calculators and stats make my eyes go funny, I think it’s right but if you spot any glaring errors let me know.
The first table I’ll look at is the overall changes between 24th June 2012 and February 24th 2014. This gives us an overall picture.
Grid Changes Between June 24th 2012 and February 24th 2014
| Type | 24th June 2012 | 24th February 2014 | Change | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estate | 22,864 | 19,163 | -3,836 | -16.19% |
| Linden Owned | 7,117 | 6,982 | -29 | -1.9% |
| Overall | 29,981 | 26,145 | -3,701 | -12.79% |
So we can see that during this period of less than two years, the grid experienced a rather whopping net loss of 16.19% of private regions. A much smaller loss of Linden Owned regions doesn’t really tell us much as there are numerous reasons why Linden Owned regions come and go, but I’m leaving them here for reference.
The next two tables show, that without any shadow of a doubt, net grid losses are decreasing. The first table is for the period between June 24th 2012 and March 31st 2013.
Grid Changes Between June 24th 2012 and March 31st 2013
| Type | 24th June 2012 | 31st March 2013 | Change | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estate | 22,864 | 20,482 | -2,382 | -10.42% |
| Linden Owned | 7,117 | 7,088 | -29 | -0.41% |
| Overall | 29,981 | 27,570 | -2,411 | -8.04% |
Private regions losses bear the brunt during this period with a loss of 10.42%. Overall losses stood at 8.04%. However the light at the end of the tunnel comes from the next table, although the tunnel is still incredibly dark, meaning there’s still a good chance that the grid will be eaten by a Grue. However there is a positive aspect to the table looking at the grid changes between March 31st 2013 and February 24th 2014.
Grid Changes Between March 31st 2013 and February 24th 2014
| Type | 31st March 2013 | 24th February 2014 | Change | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estate | 20,482 | 19,163 | -1,319 | -6.44% |
| Linden Owned | 7,088 | 6,982 | -106 | -1.5% |
| Overall | 27,570 | 26,145 | -1,425 | -5.16% |
Linden Owned percentage changes are up, in terms of being down! 1.5% of Linden Owned regions disappeared. Again, I have no idea why this would be. However when we look at the overall losses of 5.16% and the private region losses of 6.44%, we see not only a slow down in the number of region losses, but a rather strong slow down. Estate losses during this period are almost 4% less than they were in the period between June 24th 2012 and March 31st 2013. In terms of numbers there were 1,063 less net losses than during the previous period. That is quite a substantial difference.
When you add in that the latter period is a longer one, this does demonstrate that the grid is fighting back against losses. However the overall trajectory does still point downwards and I’ll be surprised if we see continued growth any time soon.
One thing I haven’t look at in these stats is churn. When I talk of churn I mean how many regions vanish or move to new owners. I haven’t taken any time to look at churn, but churn would be a good indicator of which way the wind is blowing. If we’re seeing a lot more churn these days it means Linden Lab are still attracting people to dip their toes in the estate water. However if churn is low it may well mean there’s not that much new blood around.
However if churn is new people arriving, having a paddle and then leaving, that’s not really good either. Churn would be an important stat for Linden Lab as they have far more data than the public do and they could examine trends to allow them to focus their attention on areas of perceived weakness with their offernings.
Once more I leave a Tyche inspired post by pointing you in the direction her excellent site at http://gridsurvey.com/