Second Life Private Regions Drop Below 19,000 Mark

Tyche Shepherd reported yesterday that private regions have dropped below the 19,000 mark for the first time since June 15th 2008. There are currently 18,988 private regions on the grid. However it should be pointed out that the rate of loss has slowed down and that is particularly apparent for this year, although the last couple of weeks have accelerated the fall to below the 19,000 mark.

This comes around 53 weeks after private regions dropped below the 20,000 mark. Then the private region count stood at 19,997. However by the end of 2013 there had been a further net loss of 724 private regions, leaving the score on the door of 19,273. At that point a fall below 19,000 looked likely to come in the first couple of months of 2014, but private regions have fought a brave fight against that until the last fortnight. Two weeks ago there were net losses of 39 private regions and this week a net loss of 26 private regions. That means that 65 of this year’s net loss of 285 regions have came in the last fortnight, or to put it another way, 22.8% of this year’s losses have came in the last fortnight.

There’s no rational explanation as to why private region net losses have risen like this, at around this time last year, give or take a week because Tyche went on holiday, there was a net loss of 29 private regions during a fortnightly period. Back in 2012 at around this time of the year there was a fortnightly net loss of 154 private regions. Actually, a fun with numbers quirk from that fortnightly net loss shows that in the first week private regions dropped by 59 and a week later those numbers flipped around with a weekly loss of 95 regions ….. ok it’s just me who finds that interesting isn’t it?

If we go back to the heady days of 15th June 2008, Tyche reported things a little differently, so I don’t know what the net change was but 593 regions were added to the grid that week. Yes that’s right, 593 new regions came online. This was also at a time when Linden Lab could auction new mainland regions and in another, fun facts incident Tyche reported :

Only one new mainland sim was added this week , or more to the point a mainland region has returned to the Grid “The Corn Field” is back since last Monday.

Play spooky music now!

Of course the summer of 2008 was a peaceful time in Second Life, Openspace sim pricing had been restructured earlier in the year and by the summer they were in full bloom, with Zee Linden reporting that the Second Life Virtual World Expands 44% in Q2 :

Land mass grew over 44%. The total number of regions owned by residents increased 44.2% over Q1 to just over 1.5 billion square meters. Our growth was due to the popularity of our newly launched “Openspace” land product along with a change in pricing to make the purchase of land more accessible to first time buyers. “Openspace” regions are full 65,000 square meter regions with an upfront fee of $250 and a recurring monthly fee of $75. We decreased the price for full regions by 40% to $1000 upfront (the recurring monthly fee remains $295). We also launched a new Land Store that instantly provisions new regions.

Those of us who were around at the time know that this did not end well!

So Openspaces have been incredibly popular as a perk for estate owners, but sadly there is a twist. Unfortunately most of the Openspaces are being used for much more than light use. Based on analysis performed in August and September, Openspaces are being used about twice as much as we expected, in other words being loaded with double the content/avatar load than we’d expect for a region that is supposed to be light use…………….

Beginning 1st January 2009

We will increase the monthly maintenance fee from USD$75 to USD$125 per month. This price increase will apply to all owners of Openspaces on January 1st as well as new purchases after that date. There will be no grandfathering of Openspace maintenance pricing.

I could rant, I really could. I mean every man and his dog knew that there hadn’t been a 44% rise in the land mass to provide open waterways and forests …. however let’s move on, with gritted teeth.

The losses in the last two weeks have been out of kilter with more recent weekly changes, it’s far too early to say whether the last couple of weeks are indicative of being outliers or whether a new trend of higher losses is emerging. Summer in Second Life has always been an unpredictable season with many merchants reporting a slump at this time of year. This could just be a sign that people are out doing something in the garden, it could be something more serious, time will tell.

However with a total grid size of 25,980 regions and 18,988 of these being private regions, Second Life is still an extremely healthy income stream for Linden Lab. There’s certainly no need to panic or to start manning the lifeboats.

For more Tyche Shepherd statistical goodness please visit her site at : http://gridsurvey.com/

I’ll leave you with a traditional message :

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