Jul 282014
 

Tyche Shepherd reported yesterday that private regions have dropped below the 19,000 mark for the first time since June 15th 2008. There are currently 18,988 private regions on the grid. However it should be pointed out that the rate of loss has slowed down and that is particularly apparent for this year, although the last couple of weeks have accelerated the fall to below the 19,000 mark.

This comes around 53 weeks after private regions dropped below the 20,000 mark. Then the private region count stood at 19,997. However by the end of 2013 there had been a further net loss of 724 private regions, leaving the score on the door of 19,273. At that point a fall below 19,000 looked likely to come in the first couple of months of 2014, but private regions have fought a brave fight against that until the last fortnight. Two weeks ago there were net losses of 39 private regions and this week a net loss of 26 private regions. That means that 65 of this year’s net loss of 285 regions have came in the last fortnight, or to put it another way, 22.8% of this year’s losses have came in the last fortnight.

There’s no rational explanation as to why private region net losses have risen like this, at around this time last year, give or take a week because Tyche went on holiday, there was a net loss of 29 private regions during a fortnightly period. Back in 2012 at around this time of the year there was a fortnightly net loss of 154 private regions. Actually, a fun with numbers quirk from that fortnightly net loss shows that in the first week private regions dropped by 59 and a week later those numbers flipped around with a weekly loss of 95 regions ….. ok it’s just me who finds that interesting isn’t it?

If we go back to the heady days of 15th June 2008, Tyche reported things a little differently, so I don’t know what the net change was but 593 regions were added to the grid that week. Yes that’s right, 593 new regions came online. This was also at a time when Linden Lab could auction new mainland regions and in another, fun facts incident Tyche reported :

Only one new mainland sim was added this week , or more to the point a mainland region has returned to the Grid “The Corn Field” is back since last Monday.

Play spooky music now!

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Mar 142014
 

Over a fortnight ago Tyche “Statto” Shepherd reported that the Second Life grid had experienced net growth of 14 regions, 15 for private regions, with Linden Lab dropping a region. This was the first net growth on the grid since March 31st 2013.

A week later the grid returned to losses, although it wasn’t an awful decline with the grid experiencing a net loss of 10 regions, 11 private regions and a Linden region appearing, possibly the missing one from the week before. However this did buck a trend of sorts, the grid growth of 31/03/13 was followed by a net loss of 16 regions, meaning the grid was smaller than it had been before the growth.

Prior to that, the grid had last grown on 24th June 2012, this is an important date. That week the grid grew by 30 regions, which was the third consecutive week of growth. However the week after that, the grid shrunk by a whopping 237 regions, wiping out all of that three week growth, which in total stood at 149 regions. This is why people shouldn’t get too excited about signs of growth too quickly.

Last weekend, Tyche was busy, it should be remembered that Tyche is pretty much a one woman band, she does have assistance from her survey bot, but a survey bot can only do so much. Therefore there has been no report from Tyche on the scores on the doors last weekend. However there is a backup plan, it comes in the shape and form of Tyche’s fantastic website : http://gridsurvey.com/

There we can see the scores on the doors for last weekend. The total number of Main Grid regions on March 9th was 26,176 ( 19,193 private estates & 6,983 Linden owned). This meant a net rise of 41 regions, all of them amongst private regions, there was no change in Linden owned regions. This is the largest single week rise since the 17th June 2012, although it should be noted the grid has only showed week on week growth four times since then, with last week being the fourth.

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Jan 042014
 

Tyche Shepherd’s last report of the year revealed a distinct slow down in the net number of private region losses during 2013 when compared to 2012. The report also reveals that despite net losses, the overall number of adult rated sims is on the rise. The usual caveats should apply here, just because sim is adult rated it doesn’t mean it’s a den of iniquity. Setting your sim as a rating of adult means that only people who have age verified should be able to visit.

An adult rating also gives a sim owner the greatest flexibility. This is the reason why moderate sims have always been the rating of choice. When LL added adult as a rating, many people still felt moderate was a high enough rating but some have clearly moved to adult. This shouldn’t be taken to mean that adult content or activities in Second Life are on the rise.

The report also shows that Linden Lab have definitely been rolling out newer hardware to support the service, hurrah!

Let’s first take a look at the number of sim losses during 2012 and 2013.

  • 2012 Net Private Region Losess – 2865 (12.0%)
  • 2013 Net Private Region Losses – 1719 (8.2%)

The overall number of private region losses over the two year period stands at 4584 (19.2%), so down by almost one fifth in two years, which is definitely cause for concern but the fact that losses are slowing down should be welcomed. A point to note here is that these are net losses, so more than 4584 sims have gone, some have been renamed, some have been sold and some have been replaced by new purchases.

Now let’s take a look at maturity ratings. These figures are for the year ending, so year ending 2012, year ending 2013. I should also point out that I haven’t double checked my calculations and figures can make my eyes go funny, so I may have made an error in my calculations. I apologise therefore in advance in case I have made an error, don’t be shy about pointing out errors. I’ve also included tables, which hopefully display properly! Ok on with the show.

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Dec 092013
 

So last week I blogged that private estate losses were slowing down and that losses were around the teen to high 20’s mark per week. Now just to prove me wrong, this week Tyche “Statto” Shepherd reports:

A net loss of 63 regions this week, Private Estates down by 69 while Linden Owned were up by 6

However I do have a defence here, this change in pattern of net losses is due to the departure from the grid of 47 sims owned by Beach Front Realty, if you exclude that then this week’s losses would have been in line with the recent net loss pattern at around 22. There are still 16 sims owned by Beach Front Realty on the grid but the company have announced that all their sims will close by the end of December.

A notecard sent by Beach Front Realty stated:

Dear Beach Front Residents:

The company of Beach Front Realty will regrettably be closing its doors effective immediately. Tiers will not be excepted on behalf of the owners at BF. All tenants will have a until the end of December to relocate to a different company.

For your convenience, we have located a reputable company that are willing to take our residents with a warm welcome. This company has been in  business since 2007 and we assure you that you will be pleased with the new owners of the Estates.

The Estate name is called: Tribe Estates

The owners are as follows:

Alexxa Despres

Driftwood Miles

Please contact them as they are aware of the transition.

On behalf of Kandee and Breeze we want to take this chance to thank each and every one for the loyalty you have provided throughout the years. And would like To wish you all a Happy Holiday Season.

I have been on friendly terms with Driftwood Miles and Alexxa Despres for quite a while, we used to joke around at Jack Linden’s office hour so I’m glad to see that they are trying to help out with soon to be homeless residents. Tribe Islands are good people.

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Dec 022013
 

The good news is that net private estate losses in Second Life are showing a quite significant slow down. The bad news is that the losses are still too high, as is the damn tier.

As it’s Monday and I’m lazy we’ll go back in time to December 9th 2012. Insert funny whirly time travel music now. On December 9th 2012 Tyche “Statto” Shepherd reported:

A net loss of 33 regions this week with Private Estates down by 29 and Linden Owned by 4

Total number of Main Grid regions is now 28254 ( 21168 private estates & 7086 Linden owned)
29 new regions were added and 15 returned to the grid, with 78 regions removed (11 were renamed and 2 came and went since last report)

There were no significant Estate changes detected in what was a very quite week. The total net loss in private estates since January 1st this year is now 2689 , a decline of 11.3%

Now fast forward to December 1st 2013 when Tyche reports:

A net drop of 16 regions this week with Private estates down by 17 and Linden Owned up by 1

Total number of Main Grid regions is now 26403 ( 19424 private estates & 6979 Linden owned)
32 new regions were added and 8 returned to the grid, with 55 regions removed (14 were renamed and 1 came and went since last report)

Little changes in yet another quiet week , YTD private estate losses now 1568 (7.5%).

The point Tyche makes about another quiet week is interesting because recent net losses for private estates have been 17, 8, 13 and 30 whereas around this time last year those losses were 56, 25, 56 and 23.

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Aug 052013
 

Tyche Shepherd’s private estate survey for July brings home the decline in private regions due to two landmark figures being met. Private regions slipped below the 20,000 mark during July and estimated private region tier fell below the the USD$4,000,000 per month mark. Although it should be noted that Tyche’s estimates are +/- USD$50,000, so tier may be treading water above the USD$4,000,000 mark. However another point to note is that Tyche’s estimates do not include educational discounts, so it’s likely that tier has slipped below the USD$4,000,000 barrier.

Tyche estimates that tier from private regions now stands at USD$3,975,000 +/- USD$50,000, which is estimated to be down USD$53,000 on June. Again, please note the margins of error for these figures.

Having said that, this is still a healthy income stream, we’re far from having to man the lifeboats but as I have repeatedly said, Linden Lab need to get their thinking caps on, tier is still too much of a central plank of their income stream and the tier is too damn high.

The Top 10 Estates by number of regions held are:

  •  RGF Estates Inc 5.1%
  • Azure Islands 3.4%
  • Zoha Islands 3.2%
  • Dreamseeker Estates 2.9%
  • Victoria Chung 2.7%
  • Weezles Real Estate (WRE) 2.4%
  • Miriam Chung 2.3%
  • Jessica Chung 2.3%
  • Fruit Islands Estate 1.7%
  • Lala Rentals 1.7%

There were no significant changes in the way the land lies for the large estate owners this month, all variations were within the margin of error. The top nine estates occupy the same nine positions they did last month, Lala Rentals has swapped places with Bell Estates, which drops to eleventh place on the list, but at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, they could easily flip flop again, they are running pretty much neck and neck. A list of the top 20 estates is available on Tyche’s SLU post.

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Jul 212013
 

Whereas at one point in time, private regions dipping below the 20,000 mark looked inevitable, when it actually came to private regions dipping below the 20,000 mark, boy did they make a fight of it.

Last week’s loss of 20 private regions left them teetering on the brink at 20,006, but signs of a fight were on the cards then and this week, they fought like mad, by Thursday they had increased by 2, standing at 20,008, a day later on Friday another 5 had been added and private regions stood at 20,013. They had a bit of a swagger about them at this stage and were ready to collect on bets made that they would sink below thr 20k mark this week.

However they were dealt a body blow yesterday when they dropped to 20K, they were against the ropes, wobbling around the ring, the referee took a good long hard look to ensure they weren’t taking too much damage and then, today, they were hit with an uppercut as the scores on the doors from Tyche Shepherd revealed a weekly net loss of 9 private regions, meaning they now stand at 19,997.

This means they stand at their lowest level since June 28th 2008. However are there any positives from this, well there might be.

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Jul 062013
 

All graphs/charts in the blog post are reproduced with the kind permission of Tyche Shepherd, they remain the copyright of Tyche Shepherd and should not be reproduced without Tyche’s permission.

Tyche “Statto” Shepherd’s mainland census for June 2013 is out, it can be read here at SLUniverse. This does not make pretty reading unfortunately and whereas it’s far from fatal, it does appear that mainland is wounded, far more than I realised. Some key points to take in when compared to the March 2013 Census:

  • Overall number of parcels down 2.2%.
  • Total number of Owners down 2.8%.
  • Individual Owners down 3.0%.
  • Total number of land holding groups down 1.6%.
  • Abandoned land up from 11.7% to 12.6% to a new record high of 13.4% to 14.2%.
  • Governor Linden owned land up 1.6%.
  • All Linden land holdings up 1.5% to 49%.
  • Land for sale down 35.8%.

The extremely worrying figures relate to the increased Linden Lab holdings, which at 49% amont to nearly half of all mainland, the increase in abandonded land and the significant drop in land for sale. Tyche reports that land is being abandoned faster than it is being sold and the fact that land prices are basically rock bottom explains why people would rather abandon that wait to sell, but even then, land at rock bottom prices simply isn’t moving.

An Image Should Be Here

Abandoned Land

Now if you squint and look at the above graph from a funny angle, you’ll be able to see how it represents an ongoing increase of abandoned land. Alternatively you can go to the SLUniverse link and look at the graph properly, all graphs will follow this pattern because I can’t squeeze them in nicely, but trust me, this bar chart shows an increase in abandoned land and it’s quite staggering. The increase of abandoned land over the last quarter is the the equivalent of 108 to 115 full regions.

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May 072013
 

Tyche “Statto” Shepherd has some really interesting reports going around right now and I think I’m going to have to poke her about using some of them, but the results of her private estate survey for April are in. As usual I won’t report all the findings, you can find them in the link. There isn’t anything eye catching in terms of changes in land holdings this month, the grid has shrunk and at a faster rate than in March but one interesting point to note is the change in class of Servers, there has been a leap, a rather significant one, in class 8 hardware.

Now remember this is a survey, not a census, so there are margins of error.

The key points I will highlight for this survey are:

  • Private Regions down 158 regions (0.8% since last month)
  • Total private regions now stand at 20,324
  • Estimated monthly tier income – US$4,091,000 +/- US$51,000 (Down around $45,000 or 1.1% on last month).
  • Top 20 landowners own 38.3% of private regions (Up 0.8% on last month).
  • Top 20 landowners pay 30.7% of private region tier (Up 0.4% on last month).

Nothing earth shattering in these figures, although the decline in private regions was higher during April at 0.8%, when compare to March where it was 0.3%.

Whereas the top 20 landowners holdings are up slightly, the Top 10 are down slightly, very slightly at 0.1%.

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Apr 012013
 

In her regular weekly report on the state of the nation regarding land mass, Tyche Shepherd has reported that private sims grew by 13 sims during the last week. This is the first time they’ve shown growth since June 2012, a period of 40 weeks of pretty much decline has been reported since then.

The last reported growth came week ending June 24th 2012, when Tyche reported growth of 30 private regions. At that stage we had 22,864 private regions on the grid. This week’s report shows that the growth of private regions now puts private region numbers at 20,482. That’s a loss of 2,382 private regions over the period of 40 weeks since growth was last reported, around 10.4% loss by my calculations.

Whether this is a sign that grid losses are stablising, it’s way too early to tell but the decline in the number of private regions has been slowing in recent weeks, here are the recent changes

  • 24th Feb -36
  • 3rd March -55
  • 10th March -18
  • 17th March -6
  • 24th March -23
  • 31st March +13

Another way to look at this is to compare the last report of each month so far this year:

  • January -242
  • February -179
  • March -89

So there are definitely signs of a downward trend in the number of sims leaving the grid, although those monthly reports can be skewed, for example there are five weekly reports during the March period, as opposed to four in January and February, so not an exact science.

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