The Elder Scrolls Online Faces An Uphill Battle

I went back to World Of Warcraft recently, the road back has been a slow one but I’m now firmly back playing. One path on the road to return was the free to play option whereby you can play for free up to level 20, this was how I first returned to the fold. Getting to level 20 these days doesn’t take long and there are some other restrictions on the account, but it took me back to Azeroth and from there I was hooked enough to subscribe again.

The Elder Scrolls Online launches tomorrow, in what is called an early access stage. Those who have purchased the correct version of the game start five days ahead of the official launch. There are some who will start three days ahead of the official launch. The game comes with a 30 day subscription and then the monthly subscription costs are :

  • $14.99/30 days
  • €12.99/30 days
  •  £8.99/30 days

This is hardly extortionate but comes in an era when more and more titles offer a free to play option. The thing that oft gets forgotten with free to play options is that there are payment models included, some offer a monthly subscription with perks.

I started and subscribed to Age Of Conan, Star Trek Online and Star Wars, so I’m familiar with subscription models. However the times have changed and yet, World Of Warcraft is still going strong, with a largely subscription only model. This is the game that many cite as an example of how the subscription model works and they use it as an example of Zenimax making the right choice in going subscription only with The Elder Scrolls Online. However there are some gaping flaws in this theory.

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Oculus VR Have The Opportunity To Generate Good Will To Kickstarter Backers

There have been a lot of column inches dedicated to the Facebook acquisition of Oculus VR. The initial reaction has largely been negative because Facebook are involved, as I’ve said before, Facebook only have themselves to blame for this, their actions have spoken much louder than their words and they fully deserve the reputation they’ve got. However this doesn’t mean everything they do is inherently evil or anything they touch should be written off.

Steven Poole in The Guardian believes the backlash tells us that Facebook Just Isn’t Cool. I believe it’s because Facebook just don’t have a good reputation.

Amongst the comments and debate on the acquisition I’ve seen quite a lot of comments regarding the Kickstarter backers. A lot of people have called them naive, others say they seem to be self entitled. I really am not a fan of this term, largely because it gets thrown around whenever anyone has a different view. I’ve seen this term thrown around a lot in debates about the forthcoming Elder Scrolls Online subscription only model, when people suggest a free to play model may be better, others accuse them of being self entitled, when in all reality, they are just pointing out where the MMO market is heading in terms of business models and I say this as someone who pays a subscription to World Of Warcraft. However WoW is a different kettle of fish, but I’ll leave this for another post.

What a lot of people seem to be missing is that in business terms, the Kickstarter backers are active stakeholders in the project, albeit external stakeholders, but they are stakeholders none the less.

Stakeholders are an important ingredient of any business, so treating them with respect and dignity is important. There are different levels of stakeholder and some are obviously more important than others, however in an ideal world, you want to keep as many of your stakeholders happy as possible.

Where Oculus have gone very wrong in this regard is in not recognising that a lot of those Kickstarter backers would be miffed at the Facebook takeover and therefore, they made no contingency plans for it. Oculus really should have considered refunding them in the light of the Facebook deal.

The argument against this goes that the Kickstarter backers got what they paid for, the rest is tough titty. In The Guardian article I linked to earlier, Steven Poole wrote :

Meanwhile, there seems to be an obvious question of economic justice here. The original Kickstarter backers of Oculus Rift might not have been explicitly granted shares in the company, but the company wouldn’t exist without their initial contribution. About 10,000 people gave Oculus $2.5m between them. I for one am struggling to think of a good reason why each of them shouldn’t get a proportional share of that $2bn sale.

In the comments we see :

Perhaps the fact that paying for a T-shirt, thank you note or dev-kit on kickstarter doesn’t make you an investor in a company?

You dont invest with kickstarter, you pledge a donation.

Because that wasn’t a condition of their pledge. They weren’t making an investment, and the terms of what they were paying were clearly laid out. By buying a band’s t-shirts you are contributing money to their cause, but you don’t expect to get a share in their album sales.

I agree with the comments and disagree with Steven Poole, but only because the comments are technically correct, however a happy medium should have been found.

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Minecraft’s Markus Persson On Why He Turned His Back On Oculus Rift

Markus “Notch” Persson is the owner of Mojang, the company behind Minecraft and he has also announced he has decided to part ways with Oculus after they were purchased by Facebook. Notch explains his reasons in a blog post entitled : Virtual Reality is going to change the world.

A few things are clear from the blog post, Notch is very excited about virtual reality and he was very excited about Oculus Rift too. How excited you may ask, well on the Kickstarter page for Oculus Rift, those who pledged over $5,000 got all the goodies backers at other levels got plus:

VISIT OCULUS FOR THE DAY : We’ll fly you out to the Oculus lab where you’ll spend a day hanging out with the team and checking out all of our latest work (and maybe playing a few games too). You’ll also receive a developer kit, a copy of Doom 3 BFG, Developer Center access, the t-shirt, and the poster, all signed by the entire Oculus team, in person. 

Notch qualified for that offer, although he’s not a US resident as far as I know, so I’m not sure how he sneaked in, but hey, he pledged funds for this kickstarter, but, as he explains in his blog post, the Facebook purchase changed the game :

Facebook is not a company of grass-roots tech enthusiasts. Facebook is not a game tech company. Facebook has a history of caring about building user numbers, and nothing but building user numbers. People have made games for Facebook platforms before, and while it worked great for a while, they were stuck in a very unfortunate position when Facebook eventually changed the platform to better fit the social experience they were trying to build.

Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. In fact, I think social could become one of the biggest applications of VR. Being able to sit in a virtual living room and see your friend’s avatar? Business meetings? Virtual cinemas where you feel like you’re actually watching the movie with your friend who is seven time zones away?

But I don’t want to work with social, I want to work with games.

In some ways it may have been better had Notch waited to see what transpired, but as someone who put his money where his mouth is on this product, I certainly respect his view and as I’ve said on these pages before, I’m not Facebook’s greatest fan.

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Will Relationships Reach The Stage Where We Are Together In Electric Dreams?

Linden Lab recently ran a blog post : Production Company Seeking UK Residents for TV Documentary, the gist of this is that a company called Back2back Productions are seeking couples who have met online and now have a solid relationship/marriage outside the virtual world. However they are also seeking couples who have not yet made the jump from virtual reality to actual reality, for the purposes of this production one half of the couple should be UK based, more details, including whom to contact, are in the blog post.

There is an issue with these sort of relationships in so much as is it the avatar or the person behind the avatar that falls in love? What is the initial attraction, whereas the idea that someone falls for an avatar may sound far fetched, this sort of subject matter was sort of covered in a recent article in The Guardian, which goes a stage further than wondering if people are attracted to avatars of other humans and asks : Will we ever have love affairs with video game characters? That article is a fabulous read and starts with a premise based on the film Her, where the main character falls in love with his operating system.

Whereas there’s a key difference between someone falling for a NPC instead of a character powered by a human being, there is definitely potential for some crossover. The article is really coming from an artificial intelligence point of view, with the idea that as artificial intelligence gets more sophisticated, the potential for people to be attracted to that artificial intelligence will become more likely. The idea that an artificial character can learn more about the person as they go along is the basis of a relationship, that’s how relationships grow. Games are becoming smarter with their artificial intelligence processes and the article gives some examples :

Elsewhere, Maxis, the creator of the Sims series of life simulations is expanding the AI and emotional responses of the characters for Sims 4, finely tuning them to what the player does. And Second Life developer Linden Lab recently ran a gaming experiment named Versu, a sort of choose-you-own-adventure ebook in which reader actions combined with AI characters to modify the story.

Sigh, Versu, seriously, this should not be gathering dust! However, back to the point, as the intelligence of computer characters grows, will the lines between reality and virtual reality get more and more blurred? Well part of the equation will be whether the NPC falls for the person they’re interacting with, but that sort of interaction could well be possible, Gartner researcher, Jackie Fenn is quoted as saying :

Humour and creativity will be among the more challenging areas for artificial intelligence, but even here researchers are experimenting with clever algorithms and deep learning. If a computer can learn what makes people laugh – and more importantly what makes you laugh – based on watching and analysing over time, there is no theoretical reason that a computer couldn’t eventually display and respond to humour. Similarly with music or art – by experimenting, analysing and learning, it could figure out which compositions create the best emotional resonance in the human brain.

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How Will Second Life Fare In The Face Of The Rise Of The Sandbox MMO?

Second Life has in many ways been way ahead of the pack. Their free to play model was controversial when launched but has proven to be the right model and now many MMO’s follow this model. Second Life introduced user generated content to 3D worlds and whereas some of that content has definitely been controversial, Second Life trailblazed as a platform of creativity.

In terms of empowering content creators, Second Life has once again trailblazed, by allowing content creators a means to make real money from their creations, Second Life tapped into a massively underestimated market. Second Life has therefore been quite ground breaking in terms of bringing together these concepts, but now others are starting to take note, they are starting to see the potential and they are hoping to get their share of the pie. The people who make content creation tools are also seeing the massive opportunity that is knocking louder and louder, they are making their products more accessible by offering different payment options and making their tools free or cheaper.

The likes of EverQuest Next Landmark are already attracting attention and will allow content creators to build and have the opportunity to make real money from their creations. Others will be watching with interest to see how this pans out. There is without doubt fear about user generated content but the window of opportunity is wide open.

Then there are the tools, yesterday the Unreal Engine 4 was launched with a very affordable licensing model for pretty much anybody.  The full engine and source is $19.95 a month and then 5% of any game sales, in games sales and advertising. The previous Unreal Engine was not an option for indie developers, in an article on Gamautra they  quote Epic’s Tim Sweeney as saying:

it’s typically cost millions of dollars… negotiating has involved teams of lawyers, looking at the shape of the industry now we realize it’s an outdated model, looking at the possibilities for the engine, we started out from scratch. We came up with an entirely new business model for the Unreal Engine which we are announcing today.

Now, absolutely anybody can gain access to Unreal Engine 4 by subscribing to the engine for 19 dollars a month — and you get access to everything” .

Now it dangles there as an affordable option and it’s not just game developers being wooed, they are also chasing content creators:

To help you get started, we’re shipping lots of ready-made content, samples, and game templates.  You’ll find it in the Marketplace in the Unreal Editor. Right now, it simply hosts free stuff from Epic, but its resemblance to the App Store is no coincidence: It will grow into a complete ecosystem for sharing community-created content, paid and free, and open for everyone’s participation!

These platforms, games, development engines etc. are stepping on Second Life’s toes and more of them will be stepping on their toes, will Second Life prosper?

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