Mar 252014
 

To fully appreciate the full extent of the slow down in region losses it’s best to turn to an expert. Unfortunately Tyche Shepherd doesn’t blog here, so you’ll have to read me instead. However the good news, I’m basing this post on the expert work of Tyche Shepherd and Tyche has kindly agreed to let me use her charts. Now please remember, these charts are Tyche’s work and copyrighted by Tyche, in other words, they shouldn’t be used without permission.

Ok on with the show.

Private Region Changes 2012 – 2014 (2 years)

Chart Of Private Region Changes 2012 - 2014

Private Region Changes 2012 – 2014

Unfortunately this chart doesn’t display well on a blog this small, you can get a much better view of it on SLUniverse because there when you click the link, it enlarges. This chart shows the change in private regions between 1st Jan 2012 and 29th December 2013, so that’s around 2 years, give or take a few days. Private regions shrunk from 23,857 down to 19,273. A loss of 4,584 regions or 19.2%. That’s an alarming figure but hopefully you can see the slow down. The second half of the chart shows very few weeks where the third line down was reached.

Private Region Changes 1st January 2012 – 23rd December 2012

Chart Of Grid Size Image

Private region changes during 2012

This chart shows the private region changes during most of 2012, 51 weeks of it. Two things to note, the losses during 2012 came in at 2,863, this means the majority of the two year losses came during 2012, it works out at around 62.46% of the two year losses coming during 2012, which of course means, the slow down in private region losses did not get well under way until we hit 2013.

Private Region Changes 30th December 2012 – 29th December 2013

Private Region Changes 2013 Chart

Private Region Changes 2013

Above is the chart for those losses in 2013 and what we can see is that there was a total net loss of 1,719 regions or 8.2% for the year. As I said, this is considerably lower than during 2012 but still probably a little high. The losses are heavily loaded towards the first half of the year, the slow down really starts to become apparent around July and August but as we head into the Autumn we do some weeks where the losses picked up again. None of this really indicated what was to come during the first few weeks of 2014, but the slow down is most definitely apparent.

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Feb 242014
 

Tyche “Statto” Shepherd’s weekly grid report has revealed that the Second Life grid grew this week for the first time since March 31st 2013. Tyche reports:

The grid actually grew this week by 14 regions , Private Estates had net growth of 15 while Linden Owned dropped by 1

Total number of Main Grid regions is now 26145 ( 19163 private estates & 6982 Linden owned)
60 new regions were added and 17 returned to the grid, with 63 regions removed (20 were renamed and 0 came and went since last report)

A modest growth this week , the first time the Grid has grown week on week since 31st March 2013 . The growth was distributed across a range of estates – no particular estate exhibiting a significant change in size due to new regions.

However before anyone starts poppnig champagne corks and heralding the dawn of a new age I should add a word of warning. The grid grew by 13 regions back on March 31st 2013 and that in itself was the first week on week growth since June 24th 2012, when the grid grew by 30 regions.

However there are definite positive signs. The loss of regions has undoubtedly slowed down. Let’s take a look at some tables! A point to note here, my calculations could be wrong, I may have made a glaring typo but calculators and stats make my eyes go funny, I think it’s right but if you spot any glaring errors let me know.

The first table I’ll look at is the overall changes between 24th June 2012 and February 24th 2014. This gives us an overall picture.

Grid Changes Between June 24th 2012 and February 24th 2014

Type 24th June 2012 24th February 2014 Change Percentage
Estate 22,864 19,163 -3,836 -16.19%
Linden Owned 7,117 6,982 -29 -1.9%
Overall 29,981 26,145 -3,701 -12.79%

So we can see that during this period of less than two years, the grid experienced a rather whopping net loss of 16.19% of private regions. A much smaller loss of Linden Owned regions doesn’t really tell us much as there are numerous reasons why Linden Owned regions come and go, but I’m leaving them here for reference.

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Jan 272014
 

In this post I’m going to use tables to take a look at some statistics during the Rod Humble years. Allegations that this is just an excuse for me to remind myself how to do tables in HTML will be vehemently denied. I’ll be taking data largely from Tyche “Statto” Shepherd, which can be found at SLUniverse or from Tyche’s wonderfully useful site at http://gridsurvey.com/

I’m basing the following tables on Tyche’s reports on January 16th 2011 and January 19th 2014.

Region Numbers

Type 16th Jan 2011 19th Jan 2014 Change
Estate 24,756 19,205 -5,551
Linden Owned 6,673 6,986 +313
Overall 31,429 26,191 -5,238

This is quite a painful table. A loss of over 5,500 private estate regions during three years, which comes in somewhere close to 22.4% by my reckoning. My reckoning may be out of course but that looks about right.

The loss in private regions had started before Rod Humble came onboard and although they certainly seemed to accelerate under his reign, the losses were slowing down by the time he left. I posted on January 4th that net private region losses were slowing down. During 2012 the net loss was 2,865 (12.0% during the year), in 2013 the net loss was 1,719 (8.2% during the year). I’m not sure what anyone can do to stem the loss of private regions at this stage.

Regions By Maturity Rating

Type 16th Jan 2011 19th Jan 2014 Change
Adult – Estate 2,043 4,074 +2,031
Adult – Linden 346 346 0
Adult – All 2,389 4,420 +2,031
General – Estate 3,047 1,931 -1,116
General – Linden 1,492 1,622 +130
General – All 4,539 3,553 -986
Moderate – Estate 19,663 13,196 -6,467
Moderate – Linden 4,835 5,018 +183
Moderate – All 24,498 18,214 -6,284

As we can see, during the three years Mr Humble was in charge, Second Life appeared to get more adult. Over 2,000 more Adult rated sims now furnish the grid than when he arrived in 2011. Adult rated private regions have almost doubled.

This seems to have come at the expense of moderate and general rated regions. Moderate region net losses were well over 6,000 and not far off 33%. General fared worse in terms of a percentage loss, at around 36.6%.

The usual caveats apply here, I don’t know why Adult ratings have risen so much but I do know that many an adult sim is not dedicated to full on adult activities. Some people just prefer to have the highest available rating to give them the most flexibility. This is why Moderate rated sims score so well, in the old days there were only two ratings and moderate (then known as mature) was the higher rating and therefore gave the most flexibility.

I’m sure someone somewhere may be able to delve further into the reasons for Adult becoming so popular, but it would be a painful task.

As one would expect, there’s not that much change in the numbers of Linden owned sims but there clearly were some additions.

Continue reading »

Jan 042014
 

Tyche Shepherd’s last report of the year revealed a distinct slow down in the net number of private region losses during 2013 when compared to 2012. The report also reveals that despite net losses, the overall number of adult rated sims is on the rise. The usual caveats should apply here, just because sim is adult rated it doesn’t mean it’s a den of iniquity. Setting your sim as a rating of adult means that only people who have age verified should be able to visit.

An adult rating also gives a sim owner the greatest flexibility. This is the reason why moderate sims have always been the rating of choice. When LL added adult as a rating, many people still felt moderate was a high enough rating but some have clearly moved to adult. This shouldn’t be taken to mean that adult content or activities in Second Life are on the rise.

The report also shows that Linden Lab have definitely been rolling out newer hardware to support the service, hurrah!

Let’s first take a look at the number of sim losses during 2012 and 2013.

  • 2012 Net Private Region Losess – 2865 (12.0%)
  • 2013 Net Private Region Losses – 1719 (8.2%)

The overall number of private region losses over the two year period stands at 4584 (19.2%), so down by almost one fifth in two years, which is definitely cause for concern but the fact that losses are slowing down should be welcomed. A point to note here is that these are net losses, so more than 4584 sims have gone, some have been renamed, some have been sold and some have been replaced by new purchases.

Now let’s take a look at maturity ratings. These figures are for the year ending, so year ending 2012, year ending 2013. I should also point out that I haven’t double checked my calculations and figures can make my eyes go funny, so I may have made an error in my calculations. I apologise therefore in advance in case I have made an error, don’t be shy about pointing out errors. I’ve also included tables, which hopefully display properly! Ok on with the show.

Continue reading »

Dec 092013
 

So last week I blogged that private estate losses were slowing down and that losses were around the teen to high 20′s mark per week. Now just to prove me wrong, this week Tyche “Statto” Shepherd reports:

A net loss of 63 regions this week, Private Estates down by 69 while Linden Owned were up by 6

However I do have a defence here, this change in pattern of net losses is due to the departure from the grid of 47 sims owned by Beach Front Realty, if you exclude that then this week’s losses would have been in line with the recent net loss pattern at around 22. There are still 16 sims owned by Beach Front Realty on the grid but the company have announced that all their sims will close by the end of December.

A notecard sent by Beach Front Realty stated:

Dear Beach Front Residents:

The company of Beach Front Realty will regrettably be closing its doors effective immediately. Tiers will not be excepted on behalf of the owners at BF. All tenants will have a until the end of December to relocate to a different company.

For your convenience, we have located a reputable company that are willing to take our residents with a warm welcome. This company has been in  business since 2007 and we assure you that you will be pleased with the new owners of the Estates.

The Estate name is called: Tribe Estates

The owners are as follows:

Alexxa Despres

Driftwood Miles

Please contact them as they are aware of the transition.

On behalf of Kandee and Breeze we want to take this chance to thank each and every one for the loyalty you have provided throughout the years. And would like To wish you all a Happy Holiday Season.

I have been on friendly terms with Driftwood Miles and Alexxa Despres for quite a while, we used to joke around at Jack Linden’s office hour so I’m glad to see that they are trying to help out with soon to be homeless residents. Tribe Islands are good people.

Continue reading »

Dec 022013
 

The good news is that net private estate losses in Second Life are showing a quite significant slow down. The bad news is that the losses are still too high, as is the damn tier.

As it’s Monday and I’m lazy we’ll go back in time to December 9th 2012. Insert funny whirly time travel music now. On December 9th 2012 Tyche “Statto” Shepherd reported:

A net loss of 33 regions this week with Private Estates down by 29 and Linden Owned by 4

Total number of Main Grid regions is now 28254 ( 21168 private estates & 7086 Linden owned)
29 new regions were added and 15 returned to the grid, with 78 regions removed (11 were renamed and 2 came and went since last report)

There were no significant Estate changes detected in what was a very quite week. The total net loss in private estates since January 1st this year is now 2689 , a decline of 11.3%

Now fast forward to December 1st 2013 when Tyche reports:

A net drop of 16 regions this week with Private estates down by 17 and Linden Owned up by 1

Total number of Main Grid regions is now 26403 ( 19424 private estates & 6979 Linden owned)
32 new regions were added and 8 returned to the grid, with 55 regions removed (14 were renamed and 1 came and went since last report)

Little changes in yet another quiet week , YTD private estate losses now 1568 (7.5%).

The point Tyche makes about another quiet week is interesting because recent net losses for private estates have been 17, 8, 13 and 30 whereas around this time last year those losses were 56, 25, 56 and 23.

Continue reading »

Aug 052013
 

Tyche Shepherd’s private estate survey for July brings home the decline in private regions due to two landmark figures being met. Private regions slipped below the 20,000 mark during July and estimated private region tier fell below the the USD$4,000,000 per month mark. Although it should be noted that Tyche’s estimates are +/- USD$50,000, so tier may be treading water above the USD$4,000,000 mark. However another point to note is that Tyche’s estimates do not include educational discounts, so it’s likely that tier has slipped below the USD$4,000,000 barrier.

Tyche estimates that tier from private regions now stands at USD$3,975,000 +/- USD$50,000, which is estimated to be down USD$53,000 on June. Again, please note the margins of error for these figures.

Having said that, this is still a healthy income stream, we’re far from having to man the lifeboats but as I have repeatedly said, Linden Lab need to get their thinking caps on, tier is still too much of a central plank of their income stream and the tier is too damn high.

The Top 10 Estates by number of regions held are:

  •  RGF Estates Inc 5.1%
  • Azure Islands 3.4%
  • Zoha Islands 3.2%
  • Dreamseeker Estates 2.9%
  • Victoria Chung 2.7%
  • Weezles Real Estate (WRE) 2.4%
  • Miriam Chung 2.3%
  • Jessica Chung 2.3%
  • Fruit Islands Estate 1.7%
  • Lala Rentals 1.7%

There were no significant changes in the way the land lies for the large estate owners this month, all variations were within the margin of error. The top nine estates occupy the same nine positions they did last month, Lala Rentals has swapped places with Bell Estates, which drops to eleventh place on the list, but at 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, they could easily flip flop again, they are running pretty much neck and neck. A list of the top 20 estates is available on Tyche’s SLU post.

Continue reading »

Jul 062013
 

All graphs/charts in the blog post are reproduced with the kind permission of Tyche Shepherd, they remain the copyright of Tyche Shepherd and should not be reproduced without Tyche’s permission.

Tyche “Statto” Shepherd’s mainland census for June 2013 is out, it can be read here at SLUniverse. This does not make pretty reading unfortunately and whereas it’s far from fatal, it does appear that mainland is wounded, far more than I realised. Some key points to take in when compared to the March 2013 Census:

  • Overall number of parcels down 2.2%.
  • Total number of Owners down 2.8%.
  • Individual Owners down 3.0%.
  • Total number of land holding groups down 1.6%.
  • Abandoned land up from 11.7% to 12.6% to a new record high of 13.4% to 14.2%.
  • Governor Linden owned land up 1.6%.
  • All Linden land holdings up 1.5% to 49%.
  • Land for sale down 35.8%.

The extremely worrying figures relate to the increased Linden Lab holdings, which at 49% amont to nearly half of all mainland, the increase in abandonded land and the significant drop in land for sale. Tyche reports that land is being abandoned faster than it is being sold and the fact that land prices are basically rock bottom explains why people would rather abandon that wait to sell, but even then, land at rock bottom prices simply isn’t moving.

An Image Should Be Here

Abandoned Land

Now if you squint and look at the above graph from a funny angle, you’ll be able to see how it represents an ongoing increase of abandoned land. Alternatively you can go to the SLUniverse link and look at the graph properly, all graphs will follow this pattern because I can’t squeeze them in nicely, but trust me, this bar chart shows an increase in abandoned land and it’s quite staggering. The increase of abandoned land over the last quarter is the the equivalent of 108 to 115 full regions.

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May 072013
 

Tyche “Statto” Shepherd has some really interesting reports going around right now and I think I’m going to have to poke her about using some of them, but the results of her private estate survey for April are in. As usual I won’t report all the findings, you can find them in the link. There isn’t anything eye catching in terms of changes in land holdings this month, the grid has shrunk and at a faster rate than in March but one interesting point to note is the change in class of Servers, there has been a leap, a rather significant one, in class 8 hardware.

Now remember this is a survey, not a census, so there are margins of error.

The key points I will highlight for this survey are:

  • Private Regions down 158 regions (0.8% since last month)
  • Total private regions now stand at 20,324
  • Estimated monthly tier income – US$4,091,000 +/- US$51,000 (Down around $45,000 or 1.1% on last month).
  • Top 20 landowners own 38.3% of private regions (Up 0.8% on last month).
  • Top 20 landowners pay 30.7% of private region tier (Up 0.4% on last month).

Nothing earth shattering in these figures, although the decline in private regions was higher during April at 0.8%, when compare to March where it was 0.3%.

Whereas the top 20 landowners holdings are up slightly, the Top 10 are down slightly, very slightly at 0.1%.

Continue reading »

Apr 012013
 

In her regular weekly report on the state of the nation regarding land mass, Tyche Shepherd has reported that private sims grew by 13 sims during the last week. This is the first time they’ve shown growth since June 2012, a period of 40 weeks of pretty much decline has been reported since then.

The last reported growth came week ending June 24th 2012, when Tyche reported growth of 30 private regions. At that stage we had 22,864 private regions on the grid. This week’s report shows that the growth of private regions now puts private region numbers at 20,482. That’s a loss of 2,382 private regions over the period of 40 weeks since growth was last reported, around 10.4% loss by my calculations.

Whether this is a sign that grid losses are stablising, it’s way too early to tell but the decline in the number of private regions has been slowing in recent weeks, here are the recent changes

  • 24th Feb -36
  • 3rd March -55
  • 10th March -18
  • 17th March -6
  • 24th March -23
  • 31st March +13

Another way to look at this is to compare the last report of each month so far this year:

  • January -242
  • February -179
  • March -89

So there are definitely signs of a downward trend in the number of sims leaving the grid, although those monthly reports can be skewed, for example there are five weekly reports during the March period, as opposed to four in January and February, so not an exact science.

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